Independence Day

It's the Fourth of July, Independence Day. It's about a year since we made the our decision to leave the US and move to Portugal. In reminiscing, so much has happened in that year that it might be easier to list all the things that haven't happened.

As I continue to track the pandemic by comparing Georgia and Portugal, things in Georgia are taking a dire turn, as it has across much of the US. The dreaded Y-axis is stretched again, as Georgia's seven-day average is all the way to 2499.7 cases per day, versus Portugal's 327.1 cases per day. When we checked these values three weeks ago, they were 777.4 versus 301.7; the ratio has tripled. Georgia's total case count has doubled Portugal's total: 90,493 versus 43,156. Oddly, though not unexpectedly, Gov Kemp has made no substantive change to the state's plans and efforts to minimize the spread. He has left in place his order that local authorities could take no further restrictive action – though he has gone on the record 'encouraging' the use of face masks.

The US seven-day average for cases per day is 47,031, which is more cases in one day than Portugal has had throughout the entire pandemic. Granted, the population of the US is about thirty times Portugal's. However, at Portugal's rate, the US would have less than ten thousand per day; the US average is 142 new cases per million population versus 32 in Portugal. Still it's hard to imagine that the US's total increasing at that rate; a month ago, the rate was less than half. It's the acceleration that's most concerning.

An interesting story is on the AP, showing that the rise in case counts is correlated with the 2016 election; the virus spreading much faster now in areas that voted for Trump. No surprise, as the spread of COVID-19 is a direct result of group behavior.

However, Portugal is no longer seen as a 'model' for European COVID-19 success. Notably, Portugal is not included on the UK's 'air bridge' countries. Still, Portugal has dropped down to thirty-eighth place on the big nations' table, and will likely fall out of the top forty next week, as the Philippines and Bolivia are coming up fast. There are also quite a number of recent stories which reflect our experiences, that Portugal is an excellent place to be during this anxious time.

Yesterday, we sat outside with our friends at the Deja Vu kiosk cafe in Jardim do Campo Grande, enjoying drinks, the cool breezes, the garden shade, and the company – all recent ex-pats from the Bay Area, So-Cal, and Arizona. And all grateful to be in Lisbon, while deeply concerned for the US. Happy Fourth. Stay safe.

cases: 11,284,997 global • 2,913,644 USA • 43,569 Portugal

deaths: 530,946 global • 132,224 USA • 1,605 Portugal