Authority

"When somebody's the President of the United States, the authority is total. And that's the way it's got to be. It's total. It's total." (President Trump, April 13th)

This is the one-month anniversary of Portugal's State of Emergency decree, which has been extended til May 1st (before the emergency, the country was already in a state of 'alert', with social distancing being practiced, restaurants closed, events cancelled, etc. – the alert was declared March 12th and followed WHO's pandemic declaration on March 11th). It's a bit cloudy lately, but still always warm; next week we'll be back in the 70's (°F, 20's °C). Things are still super quiet here, and the Portuguese, sensibly, seem content to trust the government and ride this out. So we've been like this now for over a month.

"We are not going to cause problems for the country just to cause problems for the government." (Rui Rio, Portuguese opposition leader, Social Democratic Party)

It's difficult to process the stream of lunacy flowing from the US. It's not just that the politicians playing 'responsibility keep-away' while assuming all the power, it's the media doing the same. Why have TV-doctors, like Dr. Oz, Dr, Phil, and Dr. Drew, been given an audience? They are not authorities in infectious diseases; Dr. Phil is not even a medical doctor.

For example, Dr. Oz suggested that re-opening schools is like 'appetizing' low-hanging fruit; it is not. In order to re-open schools, you need to basically put mass-transit back on a regular schedule, restart public and private school buses. Those buses need to be cleaned for each route. The drivers need PPE and training. Can the students sit side-by-sie on the benches? Who knows.

In order to get all the teachers back, you need to re-open child-care and day-care centers. Also, everything needed to support general commuting needs to re-open: gas stations, toll systems, parking garages, police, safety personnel. It's not just students and teachers, it's deans, counselors, nurses, librarians, coaches, and administrative staff. Schools include: food and supply deliveries, emergency and security systems, landscaping and janitorial services. How are all those people screened and prevented from touching common items?

"I tell you, schools are a real appetizing opportunity. [T]he opening of schools may only cost us two or three percent in terms of total mortality." (Dr. Mehmet Oz, April 14th)

"Look, the fact of the matter is, we have people dying. Forty-five thousand people a year die from automobile accidents." (Dr. Phil McGraw, April 16th)

"Because of panic, not because of the virus. The flu virus in this country is vastly more consequential, and no one is talking about that." (Dr. Drew Pinsky, March 3rd)

And it's not just classes – how do you feed a few hundred or a few thousand kids in a cafeteria? how do you space them out? how do you adjust schedules to minimize contact and exposure? do you need to source compostable sporks? who disinfects the dining hall? what about recess? sports? performing arts?

What scale of effort needs to be applied to re-open schools for a month or two?

I assume the folks at Fox News pay their own experts and package these stories because their viewers can consume simple answers. They know that opening schools is a necessary first-step for getting everybody back to work; after all, how can you go to work if the kids are still at home? But there are so many moving pieces involved, and so many who would be exposed.

Just to note the obvious, all of these 'experts' are using their 'authority' to frame these disconnected 'facts' to create a story of 'acceptable losses'. Dr. Oz is talking about a Lancet study that calculated a two to four percent prevention rate in total deaths from COVID-19 as a result of closing schools; that would be about 650-1300 prevented deaths (based on today's statistics, which would increase proportionally with infections). Dr. Phil suggests that we live with forty-five thousand automobile deaths per year, but those deaths are spread out over a year, not a month; and stopping one bad driver does not necessarily prevent other deaths, like preventing infections. Dr. Drew is comparing COVID-19 to the influenza virus, echoing President Trump, but there are vaccines and treatments for the flu; our health systems is built for the seasonal pressure from flu patients, unlike the overwhelming effects that COVID-19 is having on hospital ICU's, PPE suppliers, and ventilator manufacturers.

Lies. Damned lies. Statistics. Driving home the point of these absurd 'factually correct' statements is this graphical news story by the Washington Post, with the headline (compare for yourself its impact versus accidents or the flu):

Covid-19 is rapidly becoming America’s leading cause of death

At the same time, actual experts are devalued and attacked. Of course, the right-wing media personalities, including Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh, target actual infectious disease experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, but go further to accuse the well-informed, like Bill Gates. Worse, Gates is now at the center of a number of conspiracy theories because he gave a prophetic TED Talk in 2015 that was, maybe, a bit too prophetic for some.

The Gates Foundation has been working to rid the world of infectious diseases for nearly two decades. Gates does not have a medical degree, or a PhD, but he has years of operational knowledge, and on-the-ground experience. He is a better source of good information on a global pandemic and infectious diseases than Dr. Phil.

The frightening outcome of all this is that President Trump demands that the economy re-opens, the right-wing media comes up with 'alternative facts', their experts spin some story about how these facts offer these 'reasonable' options, and then protests break out to apply pressure on governors and other local authorities to re-open the economy: in Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina. These are not 'just powers derived from the consent of the governed'; it's synthetic. It's manufactured.

It is difficult to image how any responsible party wouldn't try to prevent thousands, or tens of thousands of deaths. Or, as President Trump tweeted on Friday:

LIBERATE MICHIGAN! LIBERATE MINNESOTA! LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege!

I had to go to the dentist on Wednesday. In the waiting room, we met a nurse who worked in a COVID unit here in Lisbon. He was actually helping our dentist with her PPE. I asked him if he was tired or stressed. He said that he was not, though he did complain that working all day with PPE was very uncomfortable. He seemed remarkably calm about the whole thing, even as he waited for the dentist.

There are about one thousand (1,033) COVID-19 cases, to date, in Lisbon (a city of 552,700).

There are two and a quarter million COVID-19 cases worldwide, and over one hundred and fifty thousand deaths. In the US, there are over seven hundred thousand cases and over thirty thousand deaths – US deaths have more than doubled in four days. In Portugal, there are almost twenty thousand cases and approaching seven hundred deaths.

cases: 2,256,844 global • 716,995 USA • 19,685 Portugal

deaths: 154,350 global • 33,082 USA • 687 Portugal

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A very good summary story from the Guardian (link) and a video from Euronews (below).