Friday, February 26, 2021

One Million Cases in Georgia


Georgia's case total for COVID-19 is over one million (1,000,822). Georgia's DPH is still doing that thing where they separate "antigen positive" cases from the general total. Today's daily case count is still well over three thousand (3,434); the seven-day average is just under three thousand (2915.9). Georgia's death total is over seventeen thousand (17,219). Again the DPH is separating "confirmed" and "probable" deaths. Today's daily death count is just twenty (20); the seven-day average is near ninety (87.0).

Portugal's case total for COVID-19 is over eight hundred thousand (802,773); the nation passed that milestone on Wednesday. Today's daily case count is just over one thousand (1,027); the seven-day average is just over one thousand (1,143.4). Portugal's death total is over sixteen thousand (16,243); the seven-day average is just over sixty (60.3).
Note that Georgia and Portugal have about the same size population and that both places recorded their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (March 2). Georgia mandated a stay-at-home order about about a week later than Portugal (March 20 vs March 12), and opened up about a week earlier (April 24 vs May 2).

For a baseline, on April 7, seven-day averages in Georgia and Portugal were about the same in terms of both cases and deaths (GA: 719.9 / 31.9 vs PT: 714.1 / 26.4). Accounting for the multi-week incubation of COVID-19, this shows how closing earlier and re-opening later has benefitted Portugal. Also when outbreaks did occur, Portugal went back to local lockdowns; Georgia did not do this. Data points from July 24 are illustrative of the greatest gap (GA: 3745.4 / 44.3 vs PT: 230.7 / 4.3).

At the end of August, with the end of summer and the start of school, Portugal's seven-day average began a sharp rise, passed Georgia's by October 13th (GA: 1236.3 / 32.1 vs PT: 1258.4 / 11.1), and peaked on November 19th (5817.1). Georgia's average began a sharp rise in late October, passed Portugal's on December 4th (GA: 4261.1 / 49.3 vs PT: 3816.4 / 75.3), and peaked on December 24th (7168.6).

Looking at the graphs, it's clear Georgia suffered a 'second wave' during the summer, which Portugal avoided. Unfortunately, Portugal's government sent weak and mixed message regarding the Christmas holiday, and the Portuguese (and many foreigners) took advantage. At the end of December, Portugal's case numbers made a dramatic rise – from just over one thousand (1,214) cases on December 26th, to well over sixteen thousand (16,432) cases on January 28th. However, by locking down in January, and holding the lockdown into March, Portugal sharply limited its 'third wave', and on February 22nd reported well under one thousand cases (549).

With this 'third wave', Portugal's government lost any claim to 'good management' for the pandemic. Portugal also lost much of the numerical advantage it built during the spring and summer by comparison to Georgia (GA: 2,915.9 / 87.0 vs 1,143.4 / 60.3).
     cases: 113,827,330 global • 29,107,857 USA • 802,773 Portugal
    deaths: 2,524963 global • 522,201 USA • 16,243 Portugal
    UPDATE (March 2nd): It's the anniversary of the first case of COVID-19 in Portugal; I suppose the pandemic is officially one year old. Today's case count here remains under one thousand; it has been under a thousand for the past three days (718, 394, 691). The seven-day average for cases is also under one thousand (934.4); it has not been this low since early October (949.1 on October 9th).
     

    UPDATE (March 3rd): The status map for Portugal shows that Lisbon is now at "elevated risk" (240-480 cases per 100K population – compare status map from a month ago). In fact, only three councils (counties) remain at "extremely high risk" (above 960 cases per 100K).
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