winchou: Omicron Variant

Tis the season for a new variant: Omicron (identified on November 24th; compare to Delta, which was identified on May 31st – graphs from October 7th and from today are below). Portugal is back in a state of "calamity".

"Delta" – GA vs PT COVID-19 cases and deaths – October 7, 2021

"Omicron" – GA vs PT COVID-19 cases and deaths – November 29, 2021

Portugal's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases re-passed Georgia's on November 8th (GA: 984.6 vs PT: 997.6), and have climbed steadily since. It is now approaching three thousand again, while Georgia's remains below a thousand (GA: 857.6 vs PT: 2940.6). However, it's difficult to know if Georgia's COVID-19 reporting is reliable – nearly four weeks after the case-rate dropped below one thousand, the seven-day average for deaths is still well in the double-digits (GA: 33.6 vs PT: 13.0).

The global total of COVID-19 cases passed a quarter billion on November 6th; the global total for deaths passed five million on October 28th. The total number of COVID-19 deaths in the US passed eight hundred thousand on November 26th – the day after Thanksgiving.

cases: 262,403,686 global • 49,301,070 USA • 1,144,342 Portugal

deaths: 5,224,680 global • 801,326 USA • 18,430 Portugal

UPDATE (Dec 6th): Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame (NPR):

People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.7 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates.

[ … ]

Misinformation appears to be a major factor in the lagging vaccination rates. The Kaiser Family Foundation's polling shows Republicans are far more likely to believe false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines. A full 94% of Republicans think one or more false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines might be true, and 46% believe four or more statements might be true. By contrast, only 14% of Democrats believe four or more false statements about the disease.

Today, while Portugal re-instates restrictions, the US passes fifty million cases of COVID-19.

cases: 266,711,758 global • 50,149,325 USA • 1,169,003 Portugal

deaths: 5,277,835 global • 810,254 USA • 18,551 Portugal

UPDATE (Dec 14th): Had to slip in this 'non-omicron' viral news – and consider what is broken about America (Russ Barkan, The Guardian) …

Last week, $5,000 was dropped on the ice of a local hockey rink. It was intermission and the crowd wanted to be entertained.

School teachers duked it out for the one-dollar bills to pay for classroom supplies.

One teacher came away with $592 for supplies and school programs in the so-called “dash for cash”. Another pocketed $380. The cash was donated by CU Mortgage Direct, a home lender.

News of the stunt went viral and many online commentators were rightfully horrified. Why were public school teachers battling each other at a hockey game for much-needed funding that should be coming from the state and federal governments? Why were pencil, paper and whiteboard purchases fodder for a frenzied competition?

The answer, of course, is that many US states do not properly fund public schools and the federal government doesn’t do nearly enough to guarantee every child has a right to a functioning school building and well-paid staff.

South Dakota teachers scramble for cash during half-time. (Annie Todd/Argus Leader)

cases: 271,737,744 global • 51,136,442 USA • 1,200,193 Portugal

deaths: 5,337,116 global • 821,335 USA • 18,687 Portugal

UPDATE (Dec 15th): Portugal's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases is again above four thousand (4041.0), but the seven-day average for deaths is still below twenty (15.9). This may be the result of widespread (free) national testing. NPR again featured Portugal in their pandemic reporting:

Almost 88% of Portugal's more than 10 million people are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, and booster shots are well underway. That's helping life here get somewhat back to normal.

"Well, normal is not the same normal," [Vice Adm] Gouveia e Melo says. "But at least we are smiling again. We can go out again. The economy is recovering."

[ … ]

Dr. Graça Freitas, the director of Portugal's health authority, told reporters earlier this month that the government has not ruled out more restrictions this Christmas.
But she said there are far fewer hospitalizations now that most Portuguese are vaccinated.
"It is very different to have new cases than to have lethal cases," she said.

cases: 272,469,550 global • 51,290,979 USA • 1,205,993 Portugal

deaths: 5,345,391 global • 823,390 USA • 18,698 Portugal

UPDATE (Dec 17th): Optimism over the omicron variant – if it's more contagious and less virulent, there may be an "andromeda strain" effect, that a killer virus may evolve quickly and become more benign. Fingers (very tightly) crossed …

cases: 273,977,046 global • 51,610,281 USA • 1,215,774 Portugal

deaths: 5,360,767 global • 826,719 USA • 18,741 Portugal

UPDATE (Dec 27th): Omicron has pushed Georgia's seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases past Portugal's (GA: 8559.4 vs PT: 8323.6). Both seven-day average figures are new highs for this 'Omicron Wave'. Georgia's seven-day average for deaths remain more than twice Portugal's (GA: 29.7 vs PT: 13.4). But in reality, the averages are both going vertical in a way that maybe 'who's winning' really doesn't apply – no one is winning.

[Note that Georgia and Portugal have about the same size population and that both places recorded their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (March 2, 2020). Georgia mandated a stay-at-home order about about a week later than Portugal (March 20 vs March 12), and opened up about a week earlier (April 24 vs May 2).

At the end of August 2020, with the end of summer and the start of school, Portugal's seven-day average began a sharp rise, passed Georgia's by October 13th (GA: 1236.3 / 32.1 vs PT: 1258.4 / 11.1), and peaked on November 19th (5817.1). Georgia's average began a sharp rise in late October, passed Portugal's on December 4th (GA: 4261.1 / 49.3 vs PT: 3816.4 / 75.3), and peaked on December 24th (7168.6).

Looking at the graphs, it's clear Georgia suffered a 'second wave' during the summer of 2020, which Portugal avoided. Unfortunately, Portugal's government sent weak and mixed message regarding the Christmas holiday, and by the end of December 2020, Portugal's case numbers made a dramatic rise – from just over one thousand (1,214) cases on December 26th, to well over sixteen thousand (16,432) cases on January 28th. Then, by locking down in January, and holding the lockdown into March, Portugal sharply limited its 'third wave', and on February 22nd reported well under one thousand cases (549).

The Delta Variant hit in the fall of 2021, sending Georgia's seven-day case average to a peak of 9462.9 on August 31st. By contrast, Portugal's seven-day case average hit a peak of 3287.1 on July 24th. Georgia's vaccine efforts during this time ran into resistance, and today remains at around 50%; meanwhile Portugal's vaccination rate is nearly 90%. Thus, Portugal avoided a corresponding wave of deaths, especially as compared to Georgia.

As we approach the two-year mark for the pandemic, Georgia has nearly a half million additional cases (GA: 1,759,879 vs PT: 1,286,119) and more than ten thousand additional deaths (GA: 31,246 vs PT: 18,890).]

cases: 281,629,002 global • 53,618,078 USA • 1,286,119 Portugal

deaths: 5,422,051 global • 839,101 USA • 18,890 Portugal

UPDATE (Jan 4th, 2022): The state of the pandemic during Omicron – several news outlets report that the US reported more than a million new cases in one day. Florida's COVID-19 case numbers have risen by nearly a thousand percent. Meanwhile, a feature piece in Forbes on the pandemic in Portugal praises the country's efforts, even though new records are being set here, too.

Cars line up at a drive-thru Covid testing site in Miami. December 29, 2021. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Socially distanced protest for workers' rights in Lisbon. May 1, 2020. Patricia De Melo Moreira AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

cases: 293,541,185 global • 57,131,187 USA • 1,460,406 Portugal

deaths: 5,468,353 global • 848,885 USA • 19,015 Portugal

UPDATE (Jan 19th): Waiting for the 'omicron wave' to peak so I can close out this thread – still waiting. Today, Portugal crossed two million total cases of COVID-19. But this comes as regular (free) testing in now commonplace around the country. The wave in Portugal has been a near-vertical rise, but the hospitals are handling the situation:

The simple truth is that the 52,549 new cases are a record high – but a record high of something no more frightening or uncomfortable to bear than a normal winter cold.

That is the reality of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Portugal today. They are mild.

Yes, numbers are appearing in hospital – but not in any unusual amount bearing in mind the time of year …

The total number of ICU patients in Portugal, today, is 153 – compare that to a peak of over nine hundred at about this time last year. Totals for COVID-19 deaths are still relatively low (though, of course, death totals are a lagging value).

In terms of the comparison to Georgia, there have been a series of 'data corrections' posted by the DPH, especially after the recent weekends and holidays. I've also noted that Georgia, along with many other conservative-lead states, announced in July 2021 that the pandemic emergency was over and that they would 'discontinue daily data reports'. For example, note the data points (total cases) posted on the 'day of' by the DPH on these recent dates, which were later 'updated', after the MLK Monday holiday, on January 18th:

date	day of	updated	change
1/11/22	2,050,127	2,044,471	5,656
1/12/22	2,069,066	2,063,786	5,280
1/13/22	2,093,376	2,089,399	3,977
1/14/22	2,113,319	2,110,373	2,946

Now, I have been updating small changes posted by the DPH after weekends and holidays, but they were small-ish changes (a few dozen here or there) – though it always struck me as strange, their need to constantly change the data, even going back several weeks. Though we have witnessed similar 'data practices' that caused 'resets', like the one in November 2020 or the one in May 2020, these are quite big changes.

Given that Georgia's seven-day average for deaths continues to track significantly higher than Portugal's (GA: 39.4 vs PT: 33.1), it is difficult to trust Georgia's seven-day average for cases (GA: 17,790.6 vs PT: 38,403.7). It seems that Georgia's cases data no longer moves ahead of it's deaths data (today, Georgia's total for cases is 2,188,320; total for deaths is 32,072). This is especially curious given Georgia's vaccination rate is just over fifty percent, while Portugal's rate is ninety percent.

Nor does Georgia's seven-day case average move with the US average; one of the reason's I began this collection was the correlation between Georgia and the US, Portugal and the EU. The US seven-day average peaked on January 13th at 814,146, more than tripling the previous peak from January 11th (2021) at 256,760. Georgia's seven-day average peaked on January 11th at 21,303, doubling it's previous peak from January 11th (2021) at 9,559.

Please note significant changes in the graphs: aspect ratio, y-axis values

Perhaps the data points in the next few days will clarify the situation – or maybe not.

Since the last update on January 4th, the global total for cases passed three hundred million (January 6th). The US total for cases passed sixty million (January 7th); it is about to pass seventy million (that's ten million cases in two weeks).

cases: 339,261,775 global • 69,808,350 USA • 2,003,169 Portugal

deaths: 5,583,456 global • 880,976 USA • 19,413 Portugal

UPDATE (Jan 25th): The 'omicron wave' continues in heartbreaking manner. On Friday, the US seven-day average for COVID-19 deaths passed two thousand, as the US deaths total marches toward one million. Today, the seven-day average stands at 2,159, which is a higher average than was recorded during the Delta wave.

Also today, Portugal's COVID-19 cases total passes Georgia's (GA: 2,288,693 vs PT: 2,312,240). Meanwhile Georgia's seven-day case average seems to be leveling-off (GA: 19,166.9 vs PT: 51,660.0). However, Georgia's seven-day average for COVID-19 deaths continues upwards, both locations hitting new recent highs (GA: 67.3 vs PT: 40.1).

Please note another increase in the 'Cases' graph's y-axis values

Again, these peaks may be illustrative of the widespread testing in Portugal (hospitalizations have not increased), and the questionable reliability of Georgia's data. After the weekend, the numbers again adjusted significantly. For example, the DPH changed last week's UPDATE reported total from 2,188,320 to 2,182,841. And these changes cascaded backward to the previous week. The count from January 11th changed from 2,050,127 to 2,044,471 in the last UPDATE (Jan 19th), and then to 2,039,935 today (Jan 25th) – a total of 10,192 cases erased.

date	day of	updated	change
1/18/22	2,160,539	2,154,525	6,014
1/19/22	2,188,320	2,182,841	5,479
1/20/22	2,211,004	2,206,572	4,432
1/21/22	2,229,675	2,225,867	3,808

date	chg Jan19	chg Jan25	total chg
1/11/22	5,656	4,536	10,192
1/12/22	5,280	4,683	9,963
1/13/22	3,977	5,419	9,396
1/14/22	2,946	5,712	8,658

Georgia's death totals are also 'adjusted' after the weekends (GA: 32,488 vs PT: 19,661), but only by two or three here or there – not hundreds or thousands.

cases: 359,092,858 global • 73,449,185 USA • 2,312,240 Portugal

deaths: 5,633,606 global • 894,880 USA • 19,661 Portugal

UPDATE (Jan 31st): Portugal's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases appears to have peaked on Saturday (55,756), with a peak daily case on Thursday (65,706).

Please note another increase in the 'Cases' graph's y-axis values

Georgia's data 'shifting' continues; the total for January 11th has diverged by a further two thousand 10,192 to 12,052). The total count and seven-day average for deaths in Georgia continues to increase out of sync with the cases; it is now over eighty (GA: 83.4 vs PT: 41.7).

date	day of	updated	change
1/25/22	2,288,693	2,283,420	5,273
1/26/22	2,306,025	2,301,897	4,128
1/27/22	2,327,733	2,324,231	3,502
1/28/22	2,346,518	2,344,141	2,377

date	day of	chg Feb1	total chg
1/11/22	2,050,127	2,038,075	12,052
1/12/22	2,069,066	2,057,192	11,874
1/13/22	2,093,376	2,081,972	11,404
1/14/22	2,113,319	2,102,140	11,179

cases: 378,775,707 global • 76,222,215 USA • 2,639,802 Portugal

deaths: 5,691,728 global • 910,104 USA • 19,905 Portugal

UPDATE (Feb 7th): The wave is over. Portugal's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases drops from over fifty-five thousand (55,756.4 on January 29th), to about forty-two thousand (41,884.0 today) in nine days. Daily case total drops from sixty-five thousand (65,706 on January 27th) to seventeen thousand (17,019 today) in eleven days.

Portugal's seven-day average for deaths drops, but is just over fifty (52.3 on February 6th; 50.4 today). Daily death total drops from over sixty (63 on February 1st) to the mid-thirties (36 today); Portugal's total passed twenty-thousand on February 2nd.

No graphs. Georgia's DPH posts totals today that are the same totals they posted on January 31st (wiping out 37,073 reported cases from February 4th, and magically restoring 426 people to life – more Trump voters?). No idea what's going on.

UPDATE (later same day): Georgia's DPH updates its numbers again (2,414,929 total cases, 33,545 total deaths), with similar cascading deductions as seen in recent weeks. This should be the last update for this post.