Tuesday, June 01, 2021

June

Photo: Hugo Delgado/LUSA - Portugal Resident

After a string of sunny days teasing the approach of summer, June starts dull and grey. The pandemic news today is also a let down. Recent data points are 'not great', and Portugal will retain its "state of calamity" until June 13th. Also, the Mayor of Lisbon announced there will be no celebrations for Dia de Santo António.

We got our first vaccines last Friday (Pfizer).

Yesterday, Portugal's seven-day average for daily cases of COVID-19 (518.3) again passed Georgia's (509.9). However, Portugal's seven-day average for daily deaths (1.0) was still far below Georgia's (25.1).

Georgia's totals for cases and deaths still exceeds Portugal's (GA: 1,123,841 / 20,837 vs PT: 849,093 / 17,025).


Note that Georgia and Portugal have about the same size population and that both places recorded their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (March 2). Georgia mandated a stay-at-home order about about a week later than Portugal (March 20 vs March 12), and opened up about a week earlier (April 24 vs May 2).

For a baseline, on April 7, seven-day averages in Georgia and Portugal were about the same in terms of both cases and deaths (GA: 719.9 / 31.9 vs PT: 714.1 / 26.4). Accounting for the multi-week incubation of COVID-19, this shows how closing earlier and re-opening later had benefitted Portugal. Also when outbreaks did occur, Portugal went back to local lockdowns; Georgia did not do this. Data points from July 24 are illustrative of the greatest gap (GA: 3745.4 / 44.3 vs PT: 230.7 / 4.3).

At the end of August, with the end of summer and the start of school, Portugal's seven-day average began a sharp rise, passed Georgia's by October 13th (GA: 1236.3 / 32.1 vs PT: 1258.4 / 11.1), and peaked on November 19th (5817.1). Georgia's average began a sharp rise in late October, passed Portugal's on December 4th (GA: 4261.1 / 49.3 vs PT: 3816.4 / 75.3), and peaked on December 24th (7168.6).

Looking at the graphs, it's clear Georgia suffered a 'second wave' during the summer, which Portugal avoided. Unfortunately, Portugal's government sent weak and mixed message regarding the Christmas holiday, and by the end of December, Portugal's case numbers made a dramatic rise – from just over one thousand (1,214) cases on December 26th, to well over sixteen thousand (16,432) cases on January 28th. Then, by locking down in January, and holding the lockdown into March, Portugal sharply limited its 'third wave', and on February 22nd reported well under one thousand cases (549).

Through March, case rates in Georgia and Portugal dropped steadily, as vaccinations became widely available in both places. As of June 1st, Georgia's vaccination rate was just under forty percent (4.2 million or 39.9% with at least one dose), while Portugal's was a little further below forty percent (3.7 million or 37.8%).
    cases: 171,724,175 global • 34,116,113 USA • 849,538 Portugal
    deaths: 3,570,764 global • 609,825 USA • 17,025 Portugal
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