Sunday, December 27, 2020

Waiting for Georgia


As the year grinds to a close, we are still waiting for things to settle. The new Congress will be seated (remotely?) on January 3rd. The first decision-point is January 5th, when Georgia's Senate run-off elections take place and determine which party will control the US Senate. The second is January 6th, when Congress certifies the Electoral College vote. The miserable year of 2020 will be over, but with Trump still in office, it still feels like anything could happen – it's been two months of hostile uncertainty.

In many ways, the Georgia Senate run-off has distilled the nation's concentrated tribalism, particularly with regard to religion and race. It has also become the most expensive Senate race in history, as the candidates and their supporters (or opponents) have spent over three hundred and seventy million dollars to tear each other down – in a pair of elections that only has lasted less than two months. It's hard to watch.

By the way, Portugal's President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also running for re-election in January. His campaign's budget is twenty-five thousand euros (just over thirty thousand dollars).

I've also been waiting for Georgia's seven-day COVID-19 case average to start trending downward, and now it has. It peaked on Christmas Eve (7,168.6) and is now down by more than ten percent (6,340.1). Portugal's average peaked about a month ago (5,817.1), and is now down by more than half (2,291.7)  The Y-axis in the graph is now stretched past seven thousand. I haven't done one is a while, so a recap of the 'Georgia vs Portugal' graphs follows; we are up to twenty-nine graphs.

Note that Georgia and Portugal have about the same size population and that both places recorded their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (March 2). Georgia mandated a stay-at-home order about about a week later than Portugal (March 20 vs March 12), and opened up about a week earlier (April 24 vs May 2).

For a baseline, on April 7, seven-day averages in Georgia and Portugal were about the same in terms of both cases and deaths (GA: 719.9 / 31.9 vs PT: 714.1 / 26.4). Accounting for the multi-week incubation of COVID-19, this shows how closing earlier and re-opening later has benefitted Portugal. Also when outbreaks did occur, Portugal went back to local lockdowns; Georgia has not done this. Data points from July 24 are illustrative of the greatest gap (GA: 3745.4 / 44.3 vs PT: 230.7 / 4.3).

At the end of August, with the end of summer and the start of school, Portugal's seven-day average began a sharp rise, passed Georgia's by October 13th (GA: 1236.3 / 32.1 vs PT: 1258.4 / 11.1), and peaked on November 19th (5817.1). Georgia's average began a sharp rise in late October, passed Portugal's on December 4th (GA: 4261.1 / 49.3 vs PT: 3816.4 / 75.3), and peaked on December 24th (7168.6).

Looking at the graphs, it's clear Georgia suffered a 'second wave' during the summer, which Portugal avoided. In terms of totals for cases and deaths, as opposed to averages, Georgia's totals remain significantly larger than Portugal's (GA: 632,299 / 10,689 vs PT: 394,573 / 6,619).
     cases: 81,047,499 global • 19,539,263 USA • 394,573 Portugal
    deaths: 1,770,281 global • 340,893 USA • 6,619 Portugal
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    Tuesday, December 15, 2020

    Boas Festas – Lisboa


     
    Praça Dom Pedro IV (Praça do Rossio)

     

     
    Rua Augusta

     

     
    Arco da Rua Augusta / Praça do Comércio

     

     
    Câmara Municipal de Lisboa / Pelourinho de Lisboa, Praça do Município

     
    Santander Totta, Rua Áurea / Largo do Chiado (estátua de Fernando Pessoa)

     

       
    Rua da Misericórdia / Praça Luis de Camões

     

    Rua Garrett / Armazéns do Chiado

     
    Rua do Carmo

     

     
    Praça dos Restauradores / Avenida da Liberdade / Praça do Marquês de Pombal

     
    Praça do Duque de Saldanha / Praça de Touros do Campo Pequeno

    cases: 73,799,965 global • 17,145,459 USA • 353,576 Portugal
    deaths: 1,640,905 global • 311,093 USA • 5,733 Portugal

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    Location: Praça Dom Pedro IV 41, 1100-200 Lisboa, Portugal

    Friday, December 11, 2020

    Setúbal e Azeitão


    A cool, misty Friday in December, in Portugal, is not the best time for a day trip, but we plan to meet our friends in the coastal town of Setúbal, southeast of Lisbon, where the Rio Sado joins the Atlantic. To get there, we take the Fertagus commuter rail, which travels under the Ponte 25 de Abril road deck, just over the Rio Tejo, and down the peninsula to the next river.

    It takes about an hour. Luckily, the railcars are not crowded, and despite the weather, the views to the port are captivating.

     

    We arrive at the estação in Setúbal amidst a string of construction zones. Signs of a pre-pandemic mini-boom follow us down to the Praça de Bocage, the main town square. The streetscape reminds me of Porto from a few years ago, with cranes and hard-hat crews working on monotone, modernist mid-rises, next to blown-out, stone husks. Unfortunately, the architecture is not really inspiring, as we walk south and west along the edge of the Parque do Bonfim to the Avenida 5 de Outubro.

    Taking a left at the Novo Banco, suddenly, we leap back in time. Strait, tree-lined avenidas are now slender, cobbled alleys. The scale shifts, I assume, to stay below the Igreja de São Julião's cross, which I can see past the the Câmara Municipal's stone portico. The Praça do Bocage glows with pastel tones and details, even in the mist and with the holiday lights off. My spirits are lifted, and I already want to come back to explore the igreja, with its magnificent, Manueline portal.

     

     

     

    But today we need to meet our friends at the Mercado do Livramento, so we cross the street to the esplanada within the Avenida Luisa Todi. The mercado is marvelous; stepping inside is like a another kind of time warp. Though everyone is masked and (generally) staying distant, the aisles are full of color and life. The central corridor is marked by larger-than-life statues of butchers and merchants, leading us back to the fishmongers's stalls in front of a stunning, building-length azulejos panel.

    The hammering from the talhos (butcher counters) around the perimeter cuts through the din of the mid-morning customers. There is abundance and diversity here: some scary-looking spider crabs, slithering eels, a colossal swordfish being trimmed into steaks. We collect some batatas doces (sweet potatoes), alcachofras (artichokes), and louro (laurel). But there are also, in the middle of December, fresh local morangos (strawberries) and lojas (stores) filled with brilliant bouquets.

     

     


    Energized from our shopping, we head through the Parque Natural da Arrábida in search of two well-known tile kilns. The first kiln is the Cerâmica Lapidário (Quinta do Laidário Porto de Cambras) between the Arrábida and the town of Azeitão, another oasis in the drizzle. The front court of the quinta is simply filled with pottery, the work of a mother and father, and two daughters, so there are several distinct styles on display. When I ask about the kilns, the mother takes us to the studio on the lower level, where shocking quantities of tile panels, pots, and sculptures are warehoused – each piece unique, with its own personality.

    We visited Azeitão last fall, but I was calling it São Lourenço. São Lourenço is a village of Azeitão, which is a freguesia of Setúbal. We are very happy to return and become better acquainted with this small town.


     


    We rediscover the narrow streets of São Lourenço, driving through to the east side of town and the Vila Fresca de Azeitão. We reach the Leiveira-Azulejos, which is a bit more of a factory setting than an atelier. But the work is astonishing in its attention to historical processes and craftsmanship – and, again, there is so much of it around in all stages of production. Almost better than the Museu Nacional do Azulejo, we can see how even artistically complex compositions are duplicated and manufactured. They employ a pin-hole stencil, paint-by-number, slide it in the oven system.

    Behind the workshop is a charming and exhaustive showroom. The walls, tables, and cases are covered in every type of ceramic tile, and offer hours of browsing. It is hard to leave without a smile on your face, and wonder in your heart.


     

     

     


    cases: 71,421,490 global • 16,296,344 USA • 340,287 Portugal
    deaths: 1,600,477 global • 302,773 USA • 5,373 Portugal
    UPDATE (December 13th): The US passed three hundred thousand COVID-19 deaths (302,773) and Georgia passed ten thousand deaths (10,031) on Friday. When last we checked the graphs, on November 28th, it seemed that both Georgia and Portugal had hit a second wave peak, and both were headed down.

    But today, Georgia's seven-day new-case average (5,919.0) is above Portugal's peak from November 19th (5,817.1); Portugal's average continues falling (3,752.9). The Y-axis has been incremented yet again.


    cases: 72,553,083 global • 16,681,510 USA • 348,744 Portugal
    deaths: 1,617,526 global • 305,974 USA • 5,559 Portugal
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    Location: R. dos Trabalhadores da Empresa Setubalense 15, 2925-495, Portugal
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