Friday, February 26, 2021

One Million Cases in Georgia


Georgia's case total for COVID-19 is over one million (1,000,822). Georgia's DPH is still doing that thing where they separate "antigen positive" cases from the general total. Today's daily case count is still well over three thousand (3,434); the seven-day average is just under three thousand (2915.9). Georgia's death total is over seventeen thousand (17,219). Again the DPH is separating "confirmed" and "probable" deaths. Today's daily death count is just twenty (20); the seven-day average is near ninety (87.0).

Portugal's case total for COVID-19 is over eight hundred thousand (802,773); the nation passed that milestone on Wednesday. Today's daily case count is just over one thousand (1,027); the seven-day average is just over one thousand (1,143.4). Portugal's death total is over sixteen thousand (16,243); the seven-day average is just over sixty (60.3).
Note that Georgia and Portugal have about the same size population and that both places recorded their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (March 2). Georgia mandated a stay-at-home order about about a week later than Portugal (March 20 vs March 12), and opened up about a week earlier (April 24 vs May 2).

For a baseline, on April 7, seven-day averages in Georgia and Portugal were about the same in terms of both cases and deaths (GA: 719.9 / 31.9 vs PT: 714.1 / 26.4). Accounting for the multi-week incubation of COVID-19, this shows how closing earlier and re-opening later has benefitted Portugal. Also when outbreaks did occur, Portugal went back to local lockdowns; Georgia did not do this. Data points from July 24 are illustrative of the greatest gap (GA: 3745.4 / 44.3 vs PT: 230.7 / 4.3).

At the end of August, with the end of summer and the start of school, Portugal's seven-day average began a sharp rise, passed Georgia's by October 13th (GA: 1236.3 / 32.1 vs PT: 1258.4 / 11.1), and peaked on November 19th (5817.1). Georgia's average began a sharp rise in late October, passed Portugal's on December 4th (GA: 4261.1 / 49.3 vs PT: 3816.4 / 75.3), and peaked on December 24th (7168.6).

Looking at the graphs, it's clear Georgia suffered a 'second wave' during the summer, which Portugal avoided. Unfortunately, Portugal's government sent weak and mixed message regarding the Christmas holiday, and the Portuguese (and many foreigners) took advantage. At the end of December, Portugal's case numbers made a dramatic rise – from just over one thousand (1,214) cases on December 26th, to well over sixteen thousand (16,432) cases on January 28th. However, by locking down in January, and holding the lockdown into March, Portugal sharply limited its 'third wave', and on February 22nd reported well under one thousand cases (549).

With this 'third wave', Portugal's government lost any claim to 'good management' for the pandemic. Portugal also lost much of the numerical advantage it built during the spring and summer by comparison to Georgia (GA: 2,915.9 / 87.0 vs 1,143.4 / 60.3).
     cases: 113,827,330 global • 29,107,857 USA • 802,773 Portugal
    deaths: 2,524963 global • 522,201 USA • 16,243 Portugal
    UPDATE (March 2nd): It's the anniversary of the first case of COVID-19 in Portugal; I suppose the pandemic is officially one year old. Today's case count here remains under one thousand; it has been under a thousand for the past three days (718, 394, 691). The seven-day average for cases is also under one thousand (934.4); it has not been this low since early October (949.1 on October 9th).
     

    UPDATE (March 3rd): The status map for Portugal shows that Lisbon is now at "elevated risk" (240-480 cases per 100K population – compare status map from a month ago). In fact, only three councils (counties) remain at "extremely high risk" (above 960 cases per 100K).
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    Friday, February 19, 2021

    The Weak Will Perish


    We measure ourselves by our reactions in a crisis. Exemplifying 'what not to do', this week's Texas winter weather crisis spotlights three elected officials, at different levels of government.

    Straw Man: Invent Another Threat

    This shows how the Green New Deal would be a deadly deal for the United States of America. Our wind and our solar got shut down, and they were collectively more than 10 percent of our power grid, and that thrust Texas into a situation where it was lacking power on a statewide basis. … As a result, it just shows that fossil fuel is necessary for the state of Texas as well as other states to make sure we'll be able to heat our homes in the winter time and cool our homes in the summer time.
    The idea that these power failures are due to "frozen wind turbines" is completely refuted by the the state's power agency, ERCOT, who blamed most of the outages on the state's natural gas system. ERCOT is a non-profit ISO responsible for power management; regulation of the power grid lies with the PUC of Texas, which is appointed by the Governor – long-term planning was essentially abandoned to 'market forces' during the state's deregulation in the 1990's and early 2000's.

    Gov Abbott is now blaming ERCOT and power companies instead of his own party's policies:
    The companies that generate the power, their operations have frozen up or have trip-wired and are non-operational. That is the lead reason why there is a shortage of power for the people who are lacking power right now. … But we must also point out that the way that ERCOT has handled this entire situation has been completely unacceptable.
    Strong Man: Blame the Victims

    Rather than deflect blame, Tim Boyd, Mayor of Colorado City, TX, decides to turn the issue around and blame the people looking for help:
    No one owes you are [sic] your family anything, nor is it the local government's responsibility to support you during trying times like this. Sink or swim it's your choice. The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING! I'm sick and tired of people looking for a damn handout! … If you are sitting at home in the cold because you have no power and are sitting there waiting for someone to come rescue you because your [sic] lazy is direct result of your [sic] raising. Only the strong will survive and the weak will parish [sic].
    Colorado City is a very small town several hours west of Dallas; it's only Wiki-worthy historical note is the mayor's recent resignation. Following a social and main-stream media backlash, he continues to double-down:
    Believe me when I say that many of the things I said were taken out of context and some of which were said without putting much thought in to it. … I was only making the statement that those folks that are too lazy to get up and fend for themselves but are capable should not be dealt a handout.
    Travelin' Man: Get Out of Dodge 


    Sen Ted Cruz, offers yet another option; his idea is to fly off with his family to Cancun, Mexico:
    With school cancelled for the week, our girls asked to take a trip with friends. Wanting to be a good dad, I flew down with them last night and am flying back this afternoon. My staff and I are in constant communication with state and local leaders to get to the bottom of what happened in Texas. We want our power back, our water on, our homes warm. My team and I will continue using all our resources to keep Texas informed and safe.
    I'm not sure it's helpful that conservative media is getting behind the Senator – for example, Dinesh D'Souza:
    What could [Ted Cruz] do if he were here in Texas? I’m hard-pressed to say. If he’s in Cancun, that means he’s not using up valuable resources of energy, food and water that can now be used by someone else. This is probably the best thing he could do for the state right now.
    Right, what could a Senator do for his state during a regional emergency? Why elect anybody to do anything? The answer to D'Souza's question might come from Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who helped raise over a million dollars to provide relief in Texas (she represents Brooklyn); or Beto O'Rourke, who organized a phone bank to check-in on nearly eight hundred thousand seniors (he does not currently hold elected office). Meanwhile, Sen Cruz rationalizes:
    I understand why people are upset. My intention was to take care of my family.
    If you vote for 'limited government', you might not be surprised if your governor, mayor, or senator is unable to help you when there's a real crisis: no power, no heat, no water, three dozen deaths, broken pipes, widespread property damage. But, you should to be desperately disappointed if your elected leader turns out to be callous, abusive, or cynical – a liar, a brute, or a coward.

    Our thoughts are with all those dealing with the aftermath of these storms.
    On Wednesday, the US passed half a million total deaths due to COVID-19. The world-wide death total holds just below two and a half million; the US accounts for more than twenty percent.

    Portugal's daily death total is in the sixties (67) for the first time since New Year's Day (66). Portugal's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases (1,935.1) is below two thousand for the first time since October 18th (1,901.9). The seven-day average has shot from below three thousand (2,920.1) on December 28th, to nearly thirteen thousand (12,890.6) on January 28th, to today. To illustrate this drop, I stitched together the graphs since my last post on February 10th – so the last ten days.

    Yesterday, Portugal's seven-day average for covid-19 deaths (124.1) fell below Georgia's (127.1) as well, for the first time since late October. Today, that average is lower still (112.4); it was nearly three hundred on the first of the month (290.9).


    cases: 111,095,358 global • 28,576,763 USA • 794,769 Portugal
    deaths: 2,458,686 global • 506,750 USA • 15,821 Portugal
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    Wednesday, February 10, 2021

    Beat Poetry


    Impeachment

    COVID-19 has been around so long, the United States has experienced two Presidential Impeachments while it circulated. We watched the opening arguments, last night, regarding the constitutionality of impeaching a former-President. I spent a good portion of the broadcast howling at the TV, for Trump's attorney, Bruce Castor, to get to the point (video below). We sat up when he confirmed that Joe Biden had legitimately won the election, and we were on our feet when he suggested that, rather than impeaching, the DOJ should arrest Trump – genius defense.

    Then, we slumped in confusion as Trump's second attorney, David Schoen, sped through a series of disconnected and exaggerated claims, twisting language, listing Constitutional contradictions, constructing possible loopholes. I again yelled at the screen, that he might as well read Green Eggs and Ham: do not impeach him here or there, do not impeach him anywhere. Ironically, he actually closed with a Longfellow poem, seeming to cry while he read it; it was overemotional and mystifying:
    I know this is a lot to listen to at once, a lot of words, but words are what make our Constitution, frankly. And the interpretation of that Constitution is, as you well know, a product of words. If the text quote the President of the United States in the Constitutional provision requiring the Chief Justice to preside, can refer only to the sitting President, and not to former Presidents, then the textual identification of the President contained in Article Two, Section Four, which makes the President amenable to impeachment in the first place, also excludes anyone other than the sitting President.
    [ … ]
    Fear not each sudden sound and shock, 
    'Tis of the wave and not the rock; 
    'Tis but the flapping of the sail, 
    And not a rent made by the gale! 
    In spite of rock and tempest's roar, 
    In spite of false lights on the shore, 
    Sail on, nor fear to breast the sea! 
    Our hearts, our hopes, are all with thee, 
    Our hearts, our hopes, our prayers, our tears, 
    Our faith triumphant o'er our fears, 
    Are all with thee, — are all with thee!
    A lot of words.


    Unity


    Clearly, we can not yet consider unity in policies, but we ought to hold unity in principles. All Americans should agree on the 'self-evident' – from our founding and essential documents:

    Though unambiguous, while most use these ideals to denounce the attack on the Capitol, millions of Trump supporters use the same ideals to justify the attack. If you believe in the principles that form the foundations of our representative government, how do you oppose: an election by the greatest number of voters in US history, an election certified by all fifty states, an election adjudicated in over sixty court cases, an election that already incorporated Republican gerrymandering, an election that was biased by Republican efforts to restrict minority voting (and that has fostered more efforts to restrict votes)?

    If we share faith in representative government, how else can we explain the election of a President who lost the popular vote by three million; how else to explain how fifty-three Republican Senators, representing fifteen million fewer Americans, out-voted forty-seven Democrat Senators, and acquitted Trump in his first Impeachment?

    Recall that Sen Lindsey Graham said, if Trump conceded, "there would never be another Republican President elected again." Similarly, recall that Trump said, if voters had easier access, "you'd never have a Republican elected in this country again." Believe in fair elections and consider: what's the issue?

    Apparently, we do not agree on principles. And, if not policies (government actions), or principles (national ideals), then what is left for unity?

    Unexpectedly, the most impactful and productive statement of unity I've heard during these weeks came from Republican Senator Mitt Romney, and his surprisingly emotional (for Mitt Romney) statement right after the Capitol attack – today, we might change "audit" to "impeachment":

    No Congressional audit is ever going to convince these voters [who believe in the 'fraud'], particularly when the President will continue to say that the election was stolen. The best way we can show respect for the voters who were upset is: by telling them the truth!

    If we cannot build unity on policies, or principles, we can at least – at the very least – begin building unity on truth. At the same time, truths (facts) are being undermined by conspiracy theorists, climate-change deniers, 9-11 'truthers', school-shooting hoaxers, anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers. And these folks are being elected.

    Of course, after Sen Romney's stirring words, Republican Representatives and Senators continued to object to the certification of the election. And even after a decidedly lop-sided presentation at yesterday's Impeachment, only one Republican Senator, Bill Cassidy, was compelled to change his vote to proceed with the trial.

    Despite a specific Constitutional oath to "do impartial justice", other Republican Senators were seen doodling, reading, or napping during the Impeachment presentation.

    Trump's lawyers might as well read Dr Seuss, or Jabberwocky (as Jake Tapper suggested), as it will make absolutely no difference to the outcome of these proceedings. But let's hope the Impeachment will make a difference in terms of telling the truth to a broader audience – for now and for posterity. Maybe the evidence will convince more Americans to quit and abandon QAnon, to distrust the trumped-up lies, to renounce or part from Trump's Republican Party.

    Even if the Senate votes to acquit, we must do everything possible to make dumb those subverting the truth – their lies allow us to disregard each other. Unity from respect.

    Racists

    What if we cannot unify?

    Over the weekend Donna and I had a zoom call with some friends back in the Bay Area. They wondered, with Trump removed from office, would we consider returning? Unfortunately, I had to point out that there had been a string of attacks on members of the Asian community in the East Bay. Even after one suspect was arrested last week, but there was another attack yesterday in San Leandro.


    There is no doubt that these are the lingering effects of four years of racist rants and rallies, including Trump's use of the terms "kung-flu" and "China virus". Attacks continue, even though he is out of the White House, even though he has been sequestered in some far corner, even though he has been 'de-platformed' on social media. Trump dropped the blood in the water; the sharks are still circling.

    This is a big reason why we left the US in the first place. Bullies, zealots. Racists.

    Pandemic

    The COVID-19 'third wave' surge in Portugal spiked from three thousand (3,241) cases on January 2nd, to over sixteen thousand (16,432) cases on January 28th, but has dropped back down under three thousand on February 8th and 9th (2,505 and 2,583). Hopefully, the numbers will continue to fall, and settle at an acceptable base level. The graph's spike is sharp, the count is a shock, but the time span is short. 

    Georgia's recent daily case numbers are, again, above Portugal's (Jan 7-10, four-day average, GA: 3376.0 vs PT: 3,246.8), thought the current seven-day average is still slightly lower (4,077.4 vs 4,849.3). Georgia's total cases and deaths are still higher than Portugal's (950,906 cases, 15,421 deaths vs 774,889 cases, 14,718 deaths). Note the graph's Y-axis has been extended even further, and the graph's aspect ratio is now 'portrait' in order to maintain some resemblance to past graphs.

    It is a harsh lockdown, but it is working.


    cases: 107,703,144 global • 27,854,515 USA • 774,889 Portugal
    deaths: 2,359,434 global • 481,545 USA • 14,718 Portugal
    UPDATE (February 11th): The second day of the Impeachment trial, the presentation by the House Managers featured newly published Capitol security camera footage; it was riveting and disturbing. As I watched, I continued to roll the idea of unity around in my brain.

    This morning I am watching the below video, which removes a level of hope, but does shine a light – not sure how the reporter, Donie O'Sullivan, lives on CNN Business; he was ground-level at the Jan 6th riots as well:


    Frustratingly, another piece on SF Gate suggests that the QAnon, 'boogaloo' crowd is moving further from reality, and casting for more members:
    When Parler shut down, the more influential people in the group were admonishing the others to knock off the pro-Hitler stuff. ‘This is our moment to explain to people what the Jews did. You can’t just show them a picture of Hitler, that will turn them off.’

    Everybody at every level understood there was audience to capture.
    Finally, let me close with Sen Josh Hawley; he is the definition of a total dick.
    UPDATE (February 12th): Today, Georgia's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases is, again, higher than Portugal's (3,724.7 vs 3,635.6).

    An excellent summary piece on violence against Asian Americans is up on the SFGate web site.
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