Thursday, August 05, 2021

Delta Variant

 

The COVID-19 'delta variant' hit Portugal in May and June, causing another 'wave' that peaked around July 24th (3287.1 seven-day case average). That wave is now hitting the US, with Georgia's seven-day average once again passing Portugal's on July 29th (GA: 2948.1 vs PT: 2886.0). Georgia's seven-day average is now up to 4227.0; Portugal's is 2363.0.

Georgia's seven-day average for deaths from COVID-19 also passed Portugal's (GA: 14.6 vs PT: 13.1). Georgia's vaccination rate, for persons receiving at least one shot, is forty-six percent; Portugal's vaccination rate is sixty-seven percent. And yesterday, Portugal's rate for person's fully vaccinated passed fifty percent – a few days behind the US (despite the enormous initial lead the US had on vaccinations).

Today's total for COVID-19 cases in Georgia is 1,205,434; in Portugal it's 979,987. Today's total for deaths from COVID-19 in Georgia is 21,767; in Portugal it's 17,422. Overall, it appears that Portugal has suffered sharper but shorter waves – perhaps because Portugal is opening-up and locking-down according the data. As a result, Portugal has suffered about twenty-five percent fewer cases and deaths. Looking at the graphs, the higher vaccination rate also appear to have had an effect on the seven-day average for deaths, as is no longer seems to 'echo' the average for cases – it is much lower (at least for now).

On August 3rd, the global total of COVID-19 cases passed two hundred million.

 cases: 201,646,990 global • 36,301,744 USA • 979,987 Portugal
deaths: 4,279,484 global • 631,879 USA • 17,422 Portugal

UPDATE (Aug 6th): Portugal passes seventy percent vaccination rate (with at least one dose).

UPDATE (Aug 14th): Portugal passes one million total cases of COVID-19. Portugal's vaccine effort has caught up to and passed the US and UK programs.


UPDATE (Aug 24th): Portugal's National Health Institute (INSA) reports today that all of last week's new cases of COVID-19 were from the delta variant. At the same time, the Institute reports that the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are less effective against delta than alpha.

In the US, the FDA fully approves the Pfizer vaccine today, raising hopes for a positive impact on vaccine hesitancy. The current 'wave' in the US, which is clearly regional, appears to be driven by this hesitancy as well as the 'anti-mask' policies of Republican governors. The FDA's full approval should clear the way for others groups, including the US military and large private companies, to establish vaccine mandates.

Vaccine hesitancy is growing so far out of hand that wing-nuts have taken to ingesting livestock de-worming medication to fight the delta variant – how is taking a vaccine, even one approved under an EUA, worse than taking a horse-pill?

Georgia's vaccination rate is still under fifty percent (49.89 percent with at least one shot). Portugal's vaccination rate is well over seventy percent (at 81.6, it passes eighty percent today).

 
This week, Portugal enters a "state of contingency", which is a step down from "state of calamity", so there are fewer restrictions.

Georgia's seven-day average for new daily cases is up past eight thousand; Portugal's seven-day average is steady at around two thousand (GA: 8241.3 vs PT: 2317.0). Georgia's average is quickly approaching its all-time high (9778.3 on Jan 13th). Georgia's seven-day average for daily deaths from COVID-19 is up over thirty; Portugal's is down near ten (GA: 35.6 vs PT: 10.6).

UPDATE (Sep 7th): I've been waiting for the recent surge to peak, and now it looks like it has – we'll see what happens in the next few days as back-to-school takes hold.

For Portugal, the seven-day average for cases peaked on July 24th (3287.1); the seven-day average for deaths peaked on August 9th (15.3). For Georgia, the seven-day average for cases peaked on August 31st (9462.9); the seven-day average for deaths peaked on September 5th (87.7). That's a nearly three-times multiplier for cases, and six-times multiplier for deaths.


 

cases: 222,727,918 global • 41,206,672 USA • 1,048,941 Portugal
deaths: 4,598,4964 global • 669,022 USA • 17,816 Portugal


UPDATE (Sep 21st): It's the last day of summer; fall has arrived. Yesterday, COVID-19 'officially' passed the Spanish Flu for the number of deaths in the US (696,867). Defying my summer 'optimism', Georgia's seven-day average for deaths continues to climb (131.9).

Meanwhile, Portugal's vaccination rate has passed eighty-five percent, which leads the world, and our seven-day average for deaths is in the single-digits (7.6).

 

cases: 230,284,124 global • 43,242,302 USA • 1,063,100 Portugal
deaths: 4,721,739 global • 696,867 USA • 17,925 Portugal

UPDATE (Oct 3rd): Portugal is enjoying its first "freedom" weekend with reduced COVID-19 restrictions; you are still asked to wear a mask on trains, at large gatherings, etc.

The US has passed seven hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19. Some news outlets are reporting that global COVID-19 deaths have passed five million (Worldometer still has the total under).


cases: 235,581,169 global • 44,499,305 USA • 1,071,114 Portugal
deaths: 4,814,009 global • 719,709 USA • 17,993 Portugal

UPDATE (Oct 7th): Georgia's seven-day average for deaths from COVID-19 hits a new peak (132.4); I'm changing the aspect ratio of the graphs to stretch out the x-axis (dates).

 

cases: 237,456,645 global • 44,987,068 USA • 1,073,268 Portugal
deaths: 4,846,861 global • 728,915 USA • 18,019 Portugal