Election Day has arrived. To help us get though it, here are Stephen Colbert and John Oliver being smart, thoughtful, and funny. It's just what we needed – and there's a part two.
Here are some of the other things I'm watching and reading:
- "The Swamp That Birthed Trump", Michael Kruse, Politico
- "Donald Trump Is Attacking the Very Core of America", Garrett M. Graff, WIRED
- "How to become a US citizen: 4 women share their different paths to citizenship", Shannon McLellan, ABC News
- "Why Joe Biden is Going to Win", Kendall Kaut, Kendall's Newsletter / Substack
- "Report: Trump Is Terrified About Going to Prison After Losing the Election, as He Should Be", Bess Levin, Vanity Fair / Hive
UPDATE: It's late now, and the votes are still being counted. Of course, our clocks are way ahead, so it'll still be 'today' on the west coast when I wake up tomorrow. I have the same anxious feeling I had in 2016.
Portugal's COVID-19 cases seven-day average's sharp rise seems to have hit a short-term peak, yesterday, at just over thirty-six hundred (3,673.4). This nearly matches the peak hit by Georgia in mid-July (3,745.4). The Portuguese government has imposed new 'second lockdown' restrictions to try to get the numbers down. Today, Portugal's current COVID-19 totals are 149,443 cases and 2,635 deaths; Georgia's totals are 364,589 cases and 8,029 deaths.
GA vs PT COVID-19 cases 7-day ave, Nov 3 – GA vs PT COVID-19 cases 7-day ave, Nov 4
cases: 47,807,587 global • 9,684,894 USA • 149,443 Portugal
deaths: 1,218,982 global • 238,542 USA • 2,635 Portugal
UPDATE 2 (November 4): One day later, and we still don't have a definitive answer. Biden holds a 248 to 214 electoral vote lead. He also hold leads in Nevada (6 votes) and Michigan (16 votes) – if those leads hold, he will reach the 270 vote threshold and win the presidency by the slimmest of margins, just two votes. It looks like the Senate will remain majority Republican, so there will likely be 'divided government'.
Due to some kind of lab backlog in the north today, Portugal reports an astonishing 7,497 new COVID-19 cases – by far the highest number reported during the pandemic. The seven-day average for Portugal is up to 4,078.3; Georgia's is up to 1,632.4. I've added today's graph next to yesterday's, above.
UPDATE 3 (November 5): Wake up, shower, have a coffee – peek at the iPad. Dammit! still no certainty. It's 10AM in Lisbon, 5AM on the US east coast (Lisbon is on GMT). Most news channels now show Michigan as solid blue, and seem to have it down to Nevada, where Biden leads by seventy-six hundred votes. Other outlets still have not called Arizona for Biden, where his lead is sixty-eight thousand votes.
Trump's lead in Pennsylvania has been shrinking all night because they are now counting the mail-in ballots. Only eighty-nine percent of the estimated total has been counted, and "the pollsters" are saying things look good for the Biden. Similarly in Georgia, Trump's lead is down to twenty-three thousand votes, about a half percent of the total. But the Secretary of State went home to sleep and we won't get another update until he returns to the ballot-counting facility.
UPDATE 4 (November 5): It's now about 7PM here; 2PM in the US east coast. Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas), won't finish counting the ballots they have until Saturday or Sunday (the deadline for mail-in ballots in Nevada is Nov 12). Because of legal disputes and delays in starting the process, Pennsylvania will not have all their ballots counted until Friday, though the Secretary of State says the great majority may be counted later today – hopefully it's enough to call the election.
So much has happened, but nothing has changed.
UPDATE 5 (November 6): Wake Watch, Repeat. We are stuck in a shampoo-instruction-loop on Groundhog Day. It's just after 7AM (not yet midnight on the US west coast). We stayed up to see if Pennsylvania would report significant numbers (it didn't). Then we caught Trump's unhinged press briefing, making public accusations of "fraud, illegal votes, shenanigans". Here's where the vote difference stands in the four key states:
- Pennsylvania: Trump's lead is 18,229 votes
- Georgia: Trump's lead is 665 votes
- Nevada: Biden's lead is 11,438 votes
- Arizona: Biden's lead is 47,052 votes
UPDATE 6 (Nov 6, 9:30AM): CNN reports that Biden has taken the lead in Georgia by 917 votes. There are on the order of ten thousand more votes to count. As more Democratic 'mail-in' votes have been added in Georgia, it appears that both of the state's senate races will go to run-off elections in January.
UPDATE 7 (Nov 6, 2:00PM): CNN reports that Biden has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by 5,587 votes.
UPDATE 8 (Nov 6, 11:00PM): Here's where the vote difference stands in the four key states:
- Pennsylvania: Biden's lead is 14,923 votes
- Georgia: Biden's lead is 4,175 votes
- Nevada: Biden's lead is 22,657 votes
- Arizona: Biden's lead is 39,070 votes
UPDATE 9 (Nov 7, 10:00AM): Here's where the vote difference stands in the four key states:
- Pennsylvania: Biden's lead is 28,833 votes
- Georgia: Biden's lead is 7,248 votes
- Nevada: Biden's lead is 22,657 votes
- Arizona: Biden's lead is 29,861 votes
UPDATE 10 (Nov 7, 4:23PM): CNN calls Pennsylvania and the election for Biden, and now I can exhale. I'm watching Van Jones' emotional response. Here's where the vote difference stands in the four key states:
- Pennsylvania: Biden's lead is 34,414 votes
- Georgia: Biden's lead is 7,248 votes
- Nevada: Biden's lead is 22,657 votes
- Arizona: Biden's lead is 20,573 votes
Also today, the US passes ten million cases of COVID-19; the world will soon pass fifty million cases. Portugal's seven-day average for new cases is over forty-six hundred.
cases: 49,940,508 global • 10,078,235 USA • 173,540 Portugal
deaths: 1,252,843 global • 242,414 USA • 2,848 Portugal
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